Airlines aren't cutting capacity

Despite the announcements, we aren't seeing the long-term cuts

Aircraft Intelligence Monthly - April 2026

Aircraft retirements accelerate in Q1 2026 challenging capacity shortfall, Crude oil futures signal expectation for sustained higher prices, China aircraft order could trigger order deferrals for other airlines, ME3 long-term growth strategy unchanged despite disruption, Despite fuel price spikes, airline capacity cuts slow to arrive, US low-cost capacity shifts set expectation for global airlines

The Seat Cost vs Trip Cost Paradox

Oversaturation in the large narrowbody market showcases the profitable use cases for the smaller aircraft.

International travel decline to U.S. signals long-term impact

International visitors continue avoiding U.S. air travel, creating a concerning long-term trend beyond typical pandemic recovery patterns.

A321neo increasingly focused on high density and LCC presence

Low-cost airlines' shift to high-capacity A321neo aircraft may be creating market overcapacity challenges, with carriers struggling with yields.

JetBlue's dance card: Southwest, United, or Alaska

The airlines that could fill JetBlue's dance card - in likely order

Aircraft Values and Lease Rates Sample Report

Sample report showcasing Aircraft Values and Lease Rates

A330-300 fleet demographics and values - March 2026

Near-complete shift to A321neo orders causing some carriers concern

Airlines' massive shift to A321neo orders may face limits as capacity needs normalize and premium pricing challenges emerge.

Trend of up-gauging slowly reversing, impacting future supply

Airlines are reducing seat density through premium configurations, fundamentally changing capacity deployment and future supply dynamics.

Percentage of parked GTF fleet reducing, but quantities remain elevated

GTF fleet issues persist into 2026 with slower recovery than expected, while airlines shift attention to emerging LEAP challenges.

When the Middle East hubs stop

How the loss of the large Middle Eastern hubs changed flying overnight.

A220-500 set to be seat-cost leader, but not a threat to A320neo

Airbus A220-500 positioned as seat-cost leader through simple stretch design, targeting existing A220 operators with competitive economics.

Widebody capacity to shift away from Middle East – remain in shortage

Middle East conflict creates widebody capacity imbalance as airlines shift routes away from region despite overall market shortage remaining.

Strait of Hormuz presents generational risk to aviation fuel supply

Strait of Hormuz closure threatens 23% of global jet fuel supply capacity, forcing airlines to reconsider growth plans amid economic uncertainty.

Aircraft Intelligence Monthly - March 2026

1. Middle East conflict opening new risk for aviation - Strait of Hormuz presents generational risk to aviation fuel supply - Widebody capacity to shift away from Middle East – remain in shortage 2. Mid-sized widebodies show growth for current aircraft - Transatlantic market shows unique sensitivity to seat gauge - A330-200/300 utilization a replacement market for A330neo/787-10 3. Long-term cycles suggest shifting risk profiles - Aviation spending shift to defense slowing commercial development - Attention returns to IndiGo growth strategy after departure of CEO

Oil, Jet A, and the risks to aviation

Where things stand, before they all change again

Engine maintenance values continue to outpace aircraft

Maintenance costs outpace aircraft values as A320neo crosses 50% threshold, creating risks and opportunities for lessors in an evolving market.

Fares likely to fall not rise with oil spikes

Addressing the travel myth the airlines are quite satisfied with you believing

737-800 expected to achieve six-year economic advantage over 737-8

Economic analysis reveals 737-800s may outlast newer 737-8s in fleet decisions due to maintenance cost advantages and fuel price dynamics.

A220-300 fleet demographics and values - February 2026

The global decline of the Southwest Effect

Stimulation ain't what it used to be

737NG and A320CEO first shop visit wave yet to arrive

Most 737-800 and A320ceo shop visit waves won't arrive until the 2030s, creating potential value opportunities for aircraft lessors in the coming decade.

2026 forecast suggests airlines will adjust to overcapacity by 2030

Our global forecast shows a shift from aircraft shortage to oversupply by 2030, driven by premium travel trends and changing GDP relationships.

Aircraft Intelligence Monthly - February 2026

Trend of up-gauging slowly reversing, impacting future supply. Near-complete shift to A321neo orders causing some carriers concern. A321neo increasingly focused on high density and LCC presence. A220-500 set to be seat-cost leader, but not a threat to A320neo. Percentage of parked GTF fleet reducing, but quantities remain elevated. International travel decline to U.S. signals long-term impact